Can AI Help Fix HS Basketball Tournaments?

Let me be upfront before I say anything else… this is not a critique of how Indiana runs its high school basketball tournament. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the people who manage that process, and I understand there are a hundred moving parts behind the scenes that most of us never see. No system is perfect. This was simply a fun project I decided to look at, and the response it generated told me I'm not the only one who finds this kind of thing interesting.

For those of you outside of Indiana, here's a quick primer: Our tournament is structured by class size and geography. Schools are divided into four classes - 4A being the largest, 1A the smallest - and each sectional bracket is built around proximity. Schools that are close to each other are grouped together, and that's where your tournament begins.

There's a lot to love about that setup. Local rivalries get first stage. Gyms are packed because fans can actually get there. Travel is manageable early in the tournament, which matters for both programs and families. There's an authenticity to it - a sectional championship means something in your community in a way that's hard to replicate.

But there's also a well-known tension that comes with geography-based brackets. In more densely populated areas, particularly around Indianapolis, you can end up with three or four highly ranked teams in the same sectional. For example, this year #2 Pike and #3 Plainfield drew each other and must play on the opening night. That means one of those programs is going home in the first week regardless of how good they are. Meanwhile, somewhere across the state, a much weaker sectional is sending a team into the later rounds without facing that same level of competition. It's not anyone's fault - it's just the nature of how the bracket is built. And it can lead to lopsided regional and semi-state matchups when some of the best teams have already cancelled each other out.

So I asked… what would it look like if we built the bracket the way the NCAA does it? Seeded by Sagarin rankings, with the best teams protected from each other early and matchups that reflect actual competitive standing. I used AI to help me model it out, and I posted the results on Twitter mostly expecting a few responses from coaching friends. Instead, it took off.

People care deeply about Indiana high school basketball. This state has one of the richest traditions in the country, and that pride comes through loud and clear the moment you touch the topic. There is not a more passionate state when it comes to high school basketball. That's a culture that's been built over generations, and it deserves to be celebrated.

But I also believe that loving something and wanting to improve it aren't mutually exclusive. We evolve as coaches. We study film differently, we use analytics differently, we think about player development differently than we did 20-30 years ago. Why wouldn't we occasionally ask the same questions about the structures around the game? Exploring a seeded model doesn't have to mean blowing up what exists. We can be curious enough to ask what's possible.

And for what it's worth, a seeded system has its own flaws. You lose some of those natural local rivalries. Travel gets harder for families earlier in the bracket. Smaller communities lose a piece of the home-court electricity that makes sectional week special. There's no version of this that's without tradeoffs.

Overall, this was a fun exercise. Nothing more, nothing less. But the conversation was worth having.

Question for the coaching community: How does your state structure its tournament? - geography-based, seeded, or something else entirely? Do you think AI-assisted seeding models could make high school tournaments less arbitrary and more competitive? I'd love to hear how other states handle it and whether you think there's a better way.

When It Matters Most

Speaking of tournament time. This is the time of year we all circle on the calendar.

The pressure rises. We start doing math in our heads. We look at the bracket, think about who we beat in December, who beat who, and we start calculating our chances like we're building a spreadsheet. And that's exactly how you lose focus and get beat in the first round.

Tournament basketball has a way of humbling you fast. That team you beat by 15 in December? They've had a few weeks to study you, they've made adjustments, and their team is healthier. The game you won in December has no impact on the one you're about to coach.

Your voice matters more now, not less. Adjustments win in March. Matchups shift. Rotations tighten. A small tweak in defense can swing everything. Players feel that. They look to you in timeouts. They look to you when the other team goes on a 6-0 run. Your composure becomes their composure. You're not just managing a game, you're really guiding emotion.

The flip side of that is important too. You don't magically become a great team in the postseason. There’s no “switch” you can flip. The habits from November matter. The way you practiced in January matters. The accountability conversations in February matter. Every coach talks about wanting to play their best basketball at the end of the season. That's not luck. You’ve been building towards it all season. Momentum is real. But it's built, not found.

Now you shouldn’t change for changes sake. I've been guilty of this myself. When the stakes get bigger, the temptation to tinker gets overwhelming. You start second-guessing your offense, wondering if you need a few new plays, thinking maybe this is the week to try something you saw on YouTube.

Resist it.

I've seen coaches throw out new presses, new offenses, new rotations, hoping something sticks. That's the spaghetti-on-the-wall approach. Your team got here here doing what it does. Refine, don't overhaul. Confidence comes from familiarity, and that familiarity is one of your most valuable assets right now.

And remind your players that the game is long. Tournament games have waves. There will be runs. There will be missed shots. There might be a questionable call, a slow start, or a late scare. The teams that survive aren't the ones that have no adversity, they're the ones that handle it. Every game is going to have a stretch where things go sideways. That's basketball. When things get tight, connected teams talk more, they huddle tighter, they defend harder, and they trust each other. Mental toughness is something you've either built all season or you haven't.

Tournament time doesn't require you to be someone different. It requires you to be the best version of who you've been all year.

Trust what you've built. Respect who you're playing. Stay steady. And go compete.

Questions for you: What's the biggest adjustment you've made heading into tournament play that actually worked? And what's the biggest mistake you've watched a program make when the pressure got high?

The Scouting Report is your weekly dose of resources that can help your coaching. Plays of the Week, videos, drills, etc. What’s the old joke? The best coaches are just the best thieves?

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Shared Resources: A Blast From the Past

You can learn a tremendous amount from going back and watching games from the past. Want to feel old? This game was 40 years ago! I wasn’t even born yet. But the broadcast coverage was tremendous and really immersed you before the game even started. I also love the old IU camera angle that makes you feel like you’re on the court.

Another thing I really enjoyed was at the 6:00 mark when Bob Knight gives a detailed breakdown of IU’s early struggles, adjustments, and offensive insights. I wish broadcasts would go back to doing something like this with coaches before games.

What’s the biggest difference in this game from 1986 compared to today’s games? How has basketball evolved? What is still similar?

Instead of showing crazy parents, I thought I’d share a productive article on how to confront the issue of crazy sports parents. It’s worth a read:

We’ve all gotten that one message from a parent that makes you pause, blink twice, and say… “Did they really just send that?”

If you’ve got a funny, confusing, or just plain wild message sitting in your inbox, send it in to [email protected]. We’ll feature the best ones anonymously - names and personal info will be removed.

Let’s remind each other we’re not alone in this coaching journey.

That’s a wrap on Episode 32 of Game Shots. Thank you for subscribing.

My mission has always been, and will always be, to support coaches around the world who love the game and want to keep getting better.